THE ROLE OF TOURISM IN THE INDONESIAN ECONOMY

Marinda Asih Ramadhaniah

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ABSTRAK

Studi ini mengkaji peran pariwisata terhadap ekonomi di Indonesia untuk menguji apakah pariwisata memberikan dampak positif kepada pertumbuhan ekonomi, baik jangka pendek (short term) maupun jangka panjang (long term) dan sebagai kontribusi literature atas perdebatan yang masih berjalan mengenai hipotesis pertumbuhan yang bertumpu pada pariwisata (Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis). Penelitian ini mengivestigasi hubungan antara jumlah turis internasional yang datang ke Indonesia, GDP harga konstan, dan nilai tukar efektif rupiah dengan menggunakan data triwulanan dalam periode 2000 – 2014 di Indonesia. Hasil penelitian dengan menggunakan tes kointegrasi Engle Granger dan Johansen menunjukkan bahwa terdapat hubungan jangka panjang (long term) diantara variabel. Namun, pada hasil tes hubungan kausalitas, Vector Error Correction (VEC), hipotesis pertumbuhan bertumpu pada pariwisata tidak terbukti di Indonesia. Hubungan yang terjadi ialah pariwisata bertumpu pada pertumbuhan.

Kata kunci: Pariwisata, Vector Error Correction Model, Granger Causality, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Kausalitas

 

ABSTRACT

This study investigated the role of tourism in the Indonesian economy to find whether tourism makes a positive impact on economic growth in Indonesia, both in short-run and long-run, and thus to contribute evidence to the ongoing debate about the Tourism-Led Growth (TLG) hypothesis. This study examined the relationships between international tourist arrivals, the real GDP, and the real effective exchange rate in the case of Indonesia in the quarterly data from 2000:Q1-2014:Q4. Using the co-integration test both in Engle Granger and Johansen Cointegration tests, it was found that long run relationships among variables exist. However, when the Vector Error Correction (VEC) for testing the causality was applied, Tourism-Led Growth (TLG) in the case of Indonesia does not exist. The relationship is unidirectional from output-led tourism

Keywords: Tourism, Vector Error Correction Model, Granger Causality, Economic Growth

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Referensi


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.36087/jrp.v2i2.60

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