TREND ANALYSIS AND PROJECTION OF LIFE EXPECTANCY IN EAST JAVA PROVINCE FOR POPULATION DEVELOPMENT PLANNING

Abstract

This study aims to analyze trends and project the Life Expectancy of East Java Province for the 2025–2034 period as a basis for population development planning. This study employed a quantitative approach using a time series analysis method based on secondary data on Life Expectancy in East Java Province from 2010 to 2024 obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The analysis was conducted using three trend models, namely linear, quadratic, and exponential models. The best model was selected by comparing forecasting error rates using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Squared Deviation (MSD), and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD). The results showed that the quadratic model was the best model with a MAPE value of 0.113694, MSD of 0.08078, and MAD of 0.00857. Based on this model, the Life Expectancy of East Java Province is projected to increase consistently from 72.5608 years in 2025 to 75.4788 years in 2034. The increase in life expectancy indicates improvements in public health and quality of life, but it also has the potential to increase the elderly population and dependency ratio. Therefore, the projection results can serve as a basis for local governments in formulating more anticipatory and sustainable population development policies.